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Syukuro Manabe

FRONTIERS OF KNOWLEDGE LAUREATE

Climate Change

9th edition

The BBVA Foundation Frontiers of Knowledge Award in the Climate Change category goes, in this ninth edition, to Syukuro Manabe and James E. Hansen, for their foundational contributions to the development of mathematical models of the climate system, and their pioneering use of these models to project the response of Earth’s climate to changing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and other perturbations.

CITATION (EXCERPT)

The BBVA Foundation Frontiers of Knowledge Award in Climate Change goes, in this ninth edition, to Syukuro Manabe and James E. Hansen for their foundational contributions to the development of mathematical models of the climate system, and their pioneering use of these models to understand and project how Earth’s climate responds to changing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and other perturbations. Their seminal contributions underlie the modeling and analysis frameworks in use today.

In the 1960s, Manabe developed physicsbased mathematical models describing the interplay between radiative and convective energy flows, and their interaction with other components of the climate system. These models allowed him to quantify the effect of atmospheric composition and solar perturbations on global temperature. In the mid-1970s Hansen, who had been studying planetary atmospheres, adapted similar models to begin studying Earth’s climate. Calculations by both researchers formed the basis for the first assessment of the sensitivity of Earth’s equilibrium surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Hansen built upon these approaches to project how surface temperatures would evolve in response to time varying perturbations. His projections, including one on when warming by CO2 would leave the envelope of natural variability, have stood the test of time.

Through painstaking critical analyses, Hansen and Manabe quantified factors controlling the magnitude of the surface temperature response to external perturbations. The analysis methods they developed have become central to identifying the primary sources of remaining uncertainty in predictions of future climate change.

BIO

Syukuro Manabe (Ehime, Japan; 1931) obtained a PhD in Meteorology from the University of Tokyo in 1958. He was a visiting professor at the universities of Nagoya and Tokyo, in Japan, and worked for the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). From 1997 to 2002, he headed the Global Warming Research Division at Japan’s Frontier Research Center for Global Change, before returning to the States to join the staff of Princeton University. He took American nationality in 1975.

Manabe is a pioneer in the study of the terrestrial climate system from the standpoint of fundamental physics, and in the creation of the first ever computational numerical models; technologies that would become essential tools to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of climate variability. This novel approach uncovered the first modern scientific evidence of the increase in CO2 emissions and its impact on global climate change. Manabe also spoke before the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, meeting in 1988, which would prove instrumental in bringing global warming to the attention of policy-makers and the wider public.

An Honorary Member of the American Meteorological Society, the Japan Meteorological Society and the Royal Meteorological Society (United Kingdom), and a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), he also belongs to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the Academia Europeae, the Royal Society of Canada and the Japan Academy. His numerous awards and honors include the Benjamin Franklin Model of the Franklin Institute (2015).

 

CONTRIBUTION

The first ever global climate circulation model was programmed on a computer occupying a whole room and with only half a megabyte of memory. The year was 1969. The program was run for fifty days in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at NOAA (America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) before finally delivering its results into the hands of researcher Syukuro Manabe. This is viewed as a milestone moment: the first mathematical simulation accurately recreating the global physical and chemical processes giving rise to climate. Manabe is now co-winner, along with fellow climatologist James E. Hansen, of the BBVA Foundation Frontiers of Knowledge Award in Climate Change.

The two scientists arrived independently at the first computer models integrating all major climate factors, and were able to predict how much Earth’s temperature would rise in line with increasing atmospheric CO2.

Syukuro Manabe was a pioneer in applying the calculating power of computers to the climate domain. His initial goal was simply to improve meteorological forecasting, for at that time the climate change issue was not on the radar of science. The Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius had warned in the late 19th century that fossil fuel combustion would lead to planetary warming, but no one had yet heeded the call.

Manabe earned a PhD in Meteorology from the University of Tokyo in 1958. Not long after, urged on by the lack of opportunities in post-war Japan, he moved to the United States to work with a researcher at the U.S. Weather Bureau who, like him, was specialized in rainfall prediction. In 1963, he joined the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at NOAA. The availability of computers meant Manabe could factor key climate elements into his models, among them water vapor, winds and atmospheric heat transport. To simulate the latter, however, he also had to input greenhouse gas effects, which drew his focus to CO2. By the end of the 1960s, Manabe’s model was predicting that if CO2 concentrations doubled, average world temperatures would rise by 2°C.

James E. Hansen (Denison, Iowa, United States; 1941) had at the time just completed a PhD in Physics. His training had included a scholarship at NASA and stints as a visiting student in the Astronomy Department at the University of Tokyo, where he became acquainted with Syukuro Manabe’s work. In 1967 he joined the staff at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, researching on the atmosphere of Venus. Venus is not the closest planet to the Sun but it is certainly the hottest – up to 500°C – and his work there helped establish that these extremely hot temperatures are due to an exacerbated greenhouse effect.

This finding was to mark a turning point in Hansen’s scientific career. It was by then becoming increasingly clear that atmospheric CO2 concentrations were on the rise, and scientists were wondering what the effect might be. For Hansen, this signaled the moment to switch to the study of our own planet, given what he describes as “the unfathomable consequences for countless people of any variation in the climate.” His model indicated that world temperatures would rise by up to 4.5°C in the course of the 21st century.

The paper he published in 1981 featured two innovations: it was the first to incorporate global temperature figures – thanks to a method of his invention for gathering data from available meteorological stations; and it also anticipated how warming would affect other processes, like oceanic circulation, the loss of Arctic ice cover or cycles of droughts and flooding.

“It is very hard to say as of what temperature the change becomes dangerous. What we do know is that warming will be more dangerous if it exceeds 2°C, and the less the climate changes, the better for us all. So we must do everything we can to minimize climate change.”

TWEET

Manabe and Hansen’s models are the forerunners of the dozens of climate models now in use, whose reliability scientists know they can trust. “Looking back on how the climate has changed in the last few de cades, and how models have captured these changes, we can be pretty sure about their forward projections,” remarks Manabe, since 2005 Senior Meteorologist on the Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at Princeton University (United States). He warns:“It is very hard to say as of what temperature the change becomes dangerous. What we do know is that warming will be more dangerous if it exceeds 2°C, and the less the climate changes, the better for us all. So we must do everything we can to minimize climate change.”

Hansen, Director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies from 1981 to 2013, and currently a professor at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, points up the “first big conclusion” of his work: that climate is acutely sensitive to human action. The large variations in the size of the polar ice caps between glacial periods are due to small changes in the Earth’s orbit, and the climatic perturbation caused by the burning of fossil fuels is, he affirms, more powerful still. “The changes have started and there are more to come,” he cautions. “The last time the planet was one degree hotter was during the interglacial period, some 120,000 years ago, and sea level was between 6 and 9 meters higher than it is today. If we allow that to happen again, we will lose all our coastal cities.”